The issue with most trees is that they are often uni-directional, we find a set of parents for a known child, then work back to their marriage and work back to those parents births etc. This is filled in by the census to give us some siblings although often not the full picture. However rarely do many people work those trees forwards to find the marriages of the siblings and thus their families on the census, its often more by accident that we find them on the census on the same page but different household to the parents we were looking for or something similar.
The result is that most people have limited numbers of cousins they could enter onto the 1881 census. However as Peter regularly says its these sidelines that hold the key, lets imagine an average 1800s family.
Couple born in late 1700s marry in 1800 and have 6-8 children over course of 20 years to 1820. Of course some of these say 2-3 may die young although experience shows often the numbers are "topped up" so to speak by having families of 10-12 of whom 3-4 die. So I'm going to use 7 children as a first benchmark, naturally some families will be smaller some will be larger lets take that as an average.
So 7 children survive and marry in the 1820s and 1830s, these will have children in the 1820s-1850s and again lets say they have 7 each. This branch is now over 50 people (including spouses), in the 1840s through to 1870s these children will marry and have children lets say 7 each again giving us 343 although of course we will encounter the issue that some for these people who married in the 1840s will have children themselves by the time their cousins are born. So we are probably around 350 people. If these half of these are having 7 children by the 1881 census we are talking 1225 people. However lets trim that right back because some won't be old enough to have 7 children by 1881 so lets just take 2.5 times the children just to trim back the numbers a bit although obviously it could be much more that gives 875 children born between 1860s and 1880s. Throw in the parents of the previous generation still alive and you easily get to 1000 people alive on the 1881 census from just one couple.
Now that is from ONE of your branches who marry in 1800. Typically depending on your age lets assume 65, your parents marry in say 1940s, your 4 grandparents in 1910s, your 8 1g grandparents marry in 1880s, your 16 2g grandparents marry in 1850s, your 32 3g grandparents marry in 1820s. (I've used 30 years each generation there which should usually be more like 25 so I'm going to round up by using 20 years to make first couple in 1800s). Thus your 64 4g grandparents marry in 1800s. So we have approx 32 couples marrying in 1800s.
We saw before that for 7 children average we get 1000 people per original couple in 1881 census, for 32 couples that's 32000 people that could be on the 1881 census from your direct lines. Of course some of these will emigrate some will have less children some will have more - some branches may originate from countries outside the census countries Lost Cousins covers. Some will intermarry thus reducing the numbers as branches converge etc. So the numbers might be less.
Note even if you think 7 children is too high lets feed in 2,3,4,5,6 as possibles this gives:
The result is that most people have limited numbers of cousins they could enter onto the 1881 census. However as Peter regularly says its these sidelines that hold the key, lets imagine an average 1800s family.
Couple born in late 1700s marry in 1800 and have 6-8 children over course of 20 years to 1820. Of course some of these say 2-3 may die young although experience shows often the numbers are "topped up" so to speak by having families of 10-12 of whom 3-4 die. So I'm going to use 7 children as a first benchmark, naturally some families will be smaller some will be larger lets take that as an average.
So 7 children survive and marry in the 1820s and 1830s, these will have children in the 1820s-1850s and again lets say they have 7 each. This branch is now over 50 people (including spouses), in the 1840s through to 1870s these children will marry and have children lets say 7 each again giving us 343 although of course we will encounter the issue that some for these people who married in the 1840s will have children themselves by the time their cousins are born. So we are probably around 350 people. If these half of these are having 7 children by the 1881 census we are talking 1225 people. However lets trim that right back because some won't be old enough to have 7 children by 1881 so lets just take 2.5 times the children just to trim back the numbers a bit although obviously it could be much more that gives 875 children born between 1860s and 1880s. Throw in the parents of the previous generation still alive and you easily get to 1000 people alive on the 1881 census from just one couple.
Now that is from ONE of your branches who marry in 1800. Typically depending on your age lets assume 65, your parents marry in say 1940s, your 4 grandparents in 1910s, your 8 1g grandparents marry in 1880s, your 16 2g grandparents marry in 1850s, your 32 3g grandparents marry in 1820s. (I've used 30 years each generation there which should usually be more like 25 so I'm going to round up by using 20 years to make first couple in 1800s). Thus your 64 4g grandparents marry in 1800s. So we have approx 32 couples marrying in 1800s.
We saw before that for 7 children average we get 1000 people per original couple in 1881 census, for 32 couples that's 32000 people that could be on the 1881 census from your direct lines. Of course some of these will emigrate some will have less children some will have more - some branches may originate from countries outside the census countries Lost Cousins covers. Some will intermarry thus reducing the numbers as branches converge etc. So the numbers might be less.
Note even if you think 7 children is too high lets feed in 2,3,4,5,6 as possibles this gives:
- 2 children approx 864 relatives to enter to 1881 census
- 3 children approx 2544 relatives to enter to 1881 census
- 4 children approx 5696 relatives to enter to 1881 census
- 5 children approx 10800 relatives to enter to 1881 census
- 6 children approx 18336 relatives to enter to 1881 census
