Known cousins matching to the same third party

[AdrianH]

If I and a known cousin are pointed at the same third person, in the absence of primary or secondary proof, how much confidence may we have in that suggested link?

If a second known cousin, different aunt/uncle, has the same link suggested is the confidence greater still i.e. greater than the sum of the parts?

I'm thinking about how to get round the cousins who won't communicate and may have minimal trees that don't go up far enough and the gap is too great, and I have no information, to allow me to go up, over, and down to meet them. Plugging away with the knowledge that there is something to be found, and where it might be found, is a very different prospect to "I don't have a clue where I'm headed".

Thoughts would be appreciated
AdrianH

 

[Tim]

Hi Adrian,

I would consider a DNA match as very much primary proof compared to paper or verbal records. Have you considered using the WATO tool over at DNAPainter?
Add your DNA amounts and it will hypothesise where the unknown person fits.

 

[Pauline]

If I and a known cousin are pointed at the same third person, in the absence of primary or secondary proof, how much confidence may we have in that suggested link?

I would be cautious of assuming too much if you and the unknown third person share a match with just the one known cousin (or more than one closely related cousins). On several occasions I have had this happen, only to find as new DNA matches appear there are matches with known cousins in a completely different part of my tree. It will depend also on how much DNA you and your known cousin share with the unknown third party.

I now have quite a few unknown DNA matches with shared matches on both my paternal and maternal side, though there is no evidence either on paper or in my DNA that my parents were related.

 

[peter]

I'm inclined to agree with Pauline, shared matches will indicate an area of our tree for further investigation, but if there are no records that support a connection I would be very cautious indeed.

And I certainly don't recommend using tools that assess the probability that a DNA match results from a particular relationship; even the figures that Ancestry show can be misleading.

 

[AdrianH]

So at best I've got good reason to be looking in a specific area but the standard practice of finding proofs applies. I hadn't seen the situation described in the newsletter or the "masterclasses", so I thought I'd ask.
Thank you all
Adrian

 

[peter]

So at best I've got good reason to be looking in a specific area but the standard practice of finding proofs applies. I hadn't seen the situation described in the newsletter or the "masterclasses", so I thought I'd ask.

It's not about finding proof - that may be impossible - it's about finding more evidence.